Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Grim Assessment

they are all saying this election is about "changing directin" in the Iraq war. Which can only mean retreating into a fantasyland.

I fear this view is correct:
This is probably what will happen to America. There is now a much smaller chance that the terrorist problem can be resolved at a low level of conflict. There is a great likelihood that it will be allowed by neglect or paralysis to metastize into a canker which will develop into a catastrophic confrontation in five or ten years time. A likelihood, but not a certainty.

The comparison with Israel fails in that the US is the world's security Central Banker. The sheriff of last resort. Other countries could wobble as long as the Central Banker stood firm. Now the Central Banker itself is wobbling. The UK, Europe, etc could count on America to be the security underwriter of last resort. But who will come to America's rescue if America will not come to it's own?

If America is lucky then a national security consensus can be rebuilt before the catastrophe. But America's lucky streak has just come to an end. One philosophical way to look at it is that September 11 simply wasn't enough to fatally damage the appeasers. That plus the missteps of the Republicans. There are some who argue that the Democratic party itself will start to show strains when it tries to govern, because of tensions between its left and right wings. But if it hasn't happened yet, why should it happen now? No. Washington is too insular. It will take external shocks: sad, hearbreaking ones to wake it up. I don't know where it will come from but I'm sure the enemy is thinking to provide it.

At any rate, it's a new political game. With North Korea, Iran, Iraq on the burner and Nancy Pelosi running the House there will be enormous stresses and it may be a challenge to simply hold against the threat. The time of easy security is past. Now the world must fight for its life.
Maybe, just maybe, if they don't now have to worry about losing Congress, the administration can take some real action now.

Unfortunately, the new "bipartisanship" will likely lead to open borders. And the repealing of the economy-saving tax cuts to "pay for the war" which will actually reduce tax revenue (it's up, did you know?) and send us into a recession.


Post a Comment

<< Home