Wednesday, January 17, 2007


One always hears the difficulties our GWOT endeavors face, but rarely is there a discussion of the flipside, i.e. the difficulties of our enemies.

Quagmire for the Goose or Quagmire for the Gander?

Take Iraq for instance (Please! ba-dum-bump!)

Oh my dear, it's costing is SOOOOO much, how can we ever afford to go on???

Now consider our opponents. Iran for instance.

Iran is stirring up trouble.

Making it a Quagmire for us!

Ever consider Iraq is a Quagmire for Iran? I mean, they can't possibly EVER let Iraq succeed as a relatively stable, relatively open, and prosperous country.

The moment that happens, it's over for the despots in the region. Hussein on a rope, judged by the people, is unprecedented and haunts their every moment.

Think how much in resources Iran must put into Iraq, and how it absolutely cannot ever stop worrying as long as we're there.

What is the economic power of Iran compared with the poor old US of A?

Who is going to be able to outlast, outplay, and outspend whom?

Is our economy twice as big? Three times? Ten times? Twenty times? Fifty times?


More like seventy times as large!

Iran's GDP on an exchange-rate basis is about $181 billion.

Compared with twelve and a half TRILLION, that's peanuts.

The Pentagon budget alone is two and a half times the size of Iran's entire economic output, even with oil prices at sky-high levels.

Ah, that's an interesting point, isn't it?


Iran's economy depends very much on the price of oil.

Which, if you've noticed, has strangely fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks.

Could be simple coincidence.

Of course, the Saudis are alarmed by Iranian ascendancy, and have hinted they'll ramp up oil production to flood the market and kill prices. As the low-cost producer, they'll still make a little money whereas Iran would go to the poorhouse.

Seizing Iran's oil assets or keeping out refined gasoline with a blockade (they can't produce their own fuel from the oil, they're so backward) would also be easy and destroy the regime in a jiffy.

They might rather be spending money on new centrifuges for atmoic weapons.

But instead, they're bogged down running an insurgency in Iraq, poor things.

Some might counter that insurgency tactics are ridiculously cheap to enact compared with our bloated armed forces -- though one counter to that is to ask each side if they wanted to switch positions and resources and see who bites.

The other counter to that is to note that running a Los Pepes counter-insurgency is also really inexpensive and has been proven to get quick results.

Don't forget the flipside. The Friction of War cuts both ways.


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