That ignores the impact of unforseen events.
For example, a multi-country region-wide war could be in full swing by then, and discussing redeployment would sound rather silly.
For example, Iran suddenly started rationing gasoline unexpectedly, causing widespread riots. What were they up to? Pre-empting the impact of sanctions? I doubt it. More likely diverting fuel to their army for an expected war. Building up a Strategic Reserve.
I had meant to mention this for some time, but for YEARS now Bush has been building up the US Strategic Oil Reserve, in spite of high prices. Just buying and buying, even when some academics were calling for releasing oil from the reserve to squelch the price to help the economy. Wasn't interested.
Kept buying and buying.
And at last January's State of the Union Address, in a point that nobody remarked on buth which I thought extraordinary, Bush also called for further dramatic increases in the size of the Oil Reserve!
Last week, Debka reported the following news about a third, and perhaps a fourth, carrier strike group arriving in the Gulf. The fourth could mean all is in place:
DEBKAfile: A third US carrier, the nuclear-powered USS Enterprise Strike Group is speeding towards the Persian Gulf
According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the US naval build-up off the shores of Iran marks rising military tensions in the region, accentuated by last week’s Hamas victory which has endowed Iran with a military foothold on Israel’s southwestern border.Carrier battle groups usually also are accompanied by an Expeditionary Unit of Marines.
The USS Enterprise CVN 65-Big E Strike Group will join the USS Stennis and the USS Nimitz carriers, building up the largest sea, air, marine concentration the United States has ever deployed opposite Iran. This goes towards making good on the assurances of four carriers US Vice President Dick Cheney offered the Gulf and Middle East nations during his May tour of the region.
The “Big E” leads a strike group consisting of the guided-missile destroyers USS Arleigh Burke DDG 51, USS Stout DDG 55, Forrest Sherman DDG 98 and USS James E. Williams DDG 95, as well as the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg CG 64, the SS Philadelphia SSN 690 nuclear submarine and the USNS Supply T-AOE 6.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report Washington is considering deploying the fourth US carrier for the region in the Red Sea opposite Saudi Arabian western coast to secure the three US carriers in the Gulf from the rear as well as the Gulf of Aqaba and Suez Canal.
And of this previous unconfirmed report of Iranian infiltration into Iraq, Debka offers this analysis (though at this point it is customary to mention that Debka's analysis is often wrong):
DEBKAfile reports: Iranian Revolutionary Guards suicide unit’s incursion of S. Iraq is another step in undeclared warWe could see Hamas and Hezbollah as well as Syria warring openly with Israel, as well as Hezbollah and Syria and AQ against Lebanon, and Iran and AQ against Iraq, Kurds, and the US, with Turkey even maybe seeing a chance to get involved. Then Sunni regimes such as Egypt and the Bandit Kingdom may help either Iraq vs Iran, and/or "palestinians" vs Israel!
Early this week, Tehran deployed in southern Iraq and southern Iran contingents of Revolutionary Guards Corps of suicide fighters in anticipation of an American attack on Iranian soil.
Those units were posted to fight off a possible US Marines landing in southern Iran. Tehran believes the American force will be assigned with destroying RG bases and infrastructure in the south and sabotaging the oil wells and installations of Iranian province of Khuzestan.
The RG fighters were dropped by helicopter in southern Iraq on June 24 and 25. Their task will be to launch suicide attacks on US and British bases and command posts in the region the moment Iran comes under American attack.
Also in anticipation of a showdown, Tehran announced Tuesday at only two hours notice the rationing of gas for Iran’s private motorists to 100 liters per month. Protesters started torching gas stations Wednesday.
For lack of refining capacity, the oil-rich country imports 40% of its gasoline needs and oil products. Tehran sharply reined in private consumption to free up reserves for the armed forces in case of war and keep power stations and water supplies running in an emergency.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that these two steps in three days attest to the certainty of Iran’s government and military that a military confrontation with the US is around the corner.
Some keen observers are now seeing the "Surge" as actually a cover story of policing Baghdad for what is now unfolding as a multi-pronged, coordinated corps-level operation in wide-ranging belts far from Baghdad to deny AQ any sanctuaries to run to.
Was it also cover to confront an expected surge by Iranian forces in response to strikes on their nuclear program?
A calm discussion of troop redeployment may be the least-likely scenario for this Fall!
Anything can happen between now and year's end.
Events, my dear boy; events!